STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Poland has elected a new president. Karol Nawrocki, a former historian who won an extremely tight race. Now, this is a little complicated. Poland is one of those countries that has both a president and a prime minister. The prime minister, Donald Tusk, leads a centrist coalition that is focused on restoring democratic institutions and the rule of law. The new president is a right-wing candidate, so what does his election mean? Let's ask Andrzej Bobinski, managing director of Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based policy think tank. Welcome to the program.
ANDRZEJ BOBINSKI: Hello. Good to hear from you.
INSKEEP: Good to hear from you. What power does the new president have?
BOBINSKI: He oversees foreign policy and defense and security policy, and he has veto rights. So whatever the government votes on and pushes through the Sejm - or the Parliament - the president has to sign off on or can veto, thus blocking the government's work.
INSKEEP: Oh, interesting. So he's got a lot more power than some presidents do. Now, I'm trying to figure this out from the outside as a layman. I'm aware that the old government from years ago in Poland was criticized for knocking around the free press, for damaging the courts. The newer government, Donald Tusk government, is trying to fix that. Can the new president stand in the way, and does he want to?
BOBINSKI: I think he does want to, but I don't think he can stand in the way today and tomorrow. But what he can do is basically pave a way for the party that fielded him, Law and Justice, to get back to government and to get back to the illiberal revolution that we saw between 2015 and 2023.
INSKEEP: OK. What does his election, then, say about the mood of Poland's electorate and what they want?
BOBINSKI: Well, it was a very close race. Actually, when we saw the exit polls come in, it seemed as if Rafal Trzaskowski had won it, the liberal candidate. When the late polls came in, the tide turned, and we saw a victory by Karol Nawrocki, who won by just over one percentage point. So, I mean, this is a country that's very, very divided, and I think that basically this was a referendum against the government. And as is often the case, especially in these times, people voted against the government. But as I said, this was an extremely tight race, and it does spell a lot of trouble for the government, but the question is, what happens now?
INSKEEP: What caused people to vote against the government in this case?
BOBINSKI: I think that basically, people were unhappy with the fact that the government hadn't delivered on the reforms it had promised in 2023. There was a huge excitement in 2023 when this government, the ruling coalition, had defeated Law and Justice. And there was this feeling that, finally, the country had overthrown and beat the right-wing populists. And nothing much happened later. And basically, this was also because of the fact that this was a very broad coalition from the progressive left to the conservative Peasants' Party, and this made it practically impossible to move things along - also with the president from the previous regime, Andrzej Duda, who was vetoing and blocking any ideas of reform.
INSKEEP: Wow.
BOBINSKI: So basically, people were unhappy with the fact that not much has changed. I mean, a lot has changed, but basically, the reforms that were promised...
INSKEEP: Yeah
BOBINSKI: ...Didn't come about. And I'd name rule of law on the one hand and abortion laws on the other.
INSKEEP: Very interesting. One other thing in about 10 seconds here. You said that the president oversees foreign policy. Would he change Poland's great support for Ukraine?
BOBINSKI: He might. He's very anti-Ukrainian, and I think this was one of the reasons why Karol Nawrocki won. There's a growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment. It's rather about Ukrainian migrants to Poland rather than Ukrainian foreign policy or the situation, the war. But this will be a problem. And I think what you need to keep in mind and remember, I think Karol Nawrocki brings a sort of MAGA brand of politics to Polish politics. So this is what we're going to be looking out for.
INSKEEP: We'll watch for that. Andrzej Bobinski in Warsaw. Thanks.
BOBINSKI: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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