AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Since the beginning of the Cold War, there's been a global effort to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The number of decommissioned old weapons has outstripped the number of new ones for decades. And now, after U.S. and Israeli attacks, President Trump says Iran won't be joining the small number of countries with nuclear weapons. This is from a press conference Friday.
(SOUNDBITE OF PRESS CONFERENCE)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: The last thing they're thinking about right now is nuclear. You know what they're thinking of? They're thinking about tomorrow, trying to live. It's such a mess. It's such a mess. The place was bombed to hell.
RASCOE: We'll turn now to Daryl Kimball. He's executive director of the Arms Control Association, a nonprofit that supports nuclear nonproliferation. Good morning.
DARYL KIMBALL: Good morning.
RASCOE: The White House says the U.S. is now on a diplomatic path with Iran, but Iranian officials are saying talks won't happen soon. So what are the prospects for negotiations at this point?
KIMBALL: Well, I think they're more difficult after the combined Israeli and U.S. military strikes on Iran's facilities, which have severely damaged the facilities but have not eliminated Iran's nuclear potential. I think, also, we have to recognize that Iran has been stung by these attacks. They came as they were engaged in talks with the United States on a deal to block Iran's pathways to the bomb, and so they're very reluctant right now to reengage with Donald Trump. And in recent days, the Iranian parliament has passed a law that has prohibited cooperation with Rafael Grossi's International Atomic Energy Agency and - unless Iran's nuclear facilities and scientists can have security guarantees. In other words, the IAEA can't come in, the Iranian parliament says, unless the United States and Israel can assure that they are not going to be attacking these sites again or assassinating scientists. So the prospects for resuming talks was - is difficult, and then there's the problem of what kind of deal can be reached to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons long term.
RASCOE: Well, I mean, we should note that during the president's first term, Iran appeared to be complying with the agreement, you know, brokered during the Obama administration not to pursue a bomb, but Trump unilaterally withdrew from that deal. Was that an unforced error?
KIMBALL: That was, I think, a major nonproliferation error by President Trump. The 2015 agreement that the U.S. and other world powers negotiated with Iran created an array of limits on Iran's nuclear capabilities. It put in place unprecedented international inspections. Iran was meeting the terms of that agreement when Trump pulled out in 2018 without a plan B. And the B-2 bombers, you know, struck facilities in Iran that were not supposed to be containing centrifuges under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. They were not supposed to be producing the uranium enriched at 60% that - and we're now very worried about still remains in Iran. So if that deal had been in place, it is very, very likely that these military strikes would not have been - even President Trump would have to - would not have to think about it.
RASCOE: Well, what about the idea that the administration is saying - and what Trump is saying - is, look, by bombing Iran, now they are not going to try to pursue a bomb? They've felt the consequences of it. They see it's severe so they're not going to do that.
KIMBALL: Well, I think that's hope that is not based on the facts that we see. Iran still has the nuclear knowledge. They still have the capacity to produce more centrifuges. They apparently still have the 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that could be further enriched to provide the raw materials for about 10 to 12 bombs. And the regime's decision to pursue nuclear weapons or not to pursue nuclear weapons, I think, may have tilted in favor of pursuing nuclear weapons. Because when two nuclear armed states - the United States and Israel, which has about 100 nuclear weapons - attacks a nonnuclear weapon state - albeit a theocratic despotic regime - it is going to change their calculations about what might be necessary to deter future attacks. So I'm concerned that this will change the calculations in Iran about whether to pursue nuclear weapons. And it will change, I think, the views of other nonnuclear weapon states about what they need to protect themselves.
RASCOE: Well, what are those countries that you think may be thinking differently about nuclear weapons now, in the time we have left?
KIMBALL: You know, nonproliferation is not a short-term enterprise. We need to be thinking decades down the line, and the Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime is already under tremendous stress. And we have to reinforce the fact that nuclear-armed states are going to pursue the elimination of nuclear weapons and negotiate reductions. And nonnuclear weapon states are going to respect the taboo against acquiring nuclear weapons and to be protected against attacks by larger nuclear-armed countries.
RASCOE: That's Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. Thank you so much for being with us today.
KIMBALL: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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