LEILA FADEL, HOST:
So where does the fight against Mexico's drug trade go next after the killing of the powerful drug lord known as El Mencho? Let's ask Mike Vigil. He's a former chief of international operations for the United States Drug Enforcement Agency. Good morning, and welcome back to the program.
MIKE VIGIL: Thank you so much, Leila.
FADEL: So what does the killing of El Mencho mean for his cartel's future?
VIGIL: While the killing of El Mencho is a very, very definitive action and is being undertaken by the Mexican government to go after the cartels, El Mencho - very different from "El Mayo" Zambada, "El Chapo" Guzman - what (ph) ruled the Jalisco New Generation Cartel with an iron fist. He was a dictator. So he basically controlled everything. So this is the time for Mexico and hopefully the United States to go after the infrastructure of the entire cartel, simply because it's not good enough to kill the leader of a cartel because normally they fragment, and all of a sudden, you have a proverbial hydra, where instead of one cartel, you have two or three.
FADEL: Are you saying, though, that this could lead to an even bigger drug war if more military force isn't used to go after the infrastructure now?
VIGIL: Correct. Because we've seen the kingpin strategy, you know, hasn't resolved. But there's consequences. You know, when Felipe Calderon, who was president in Mexico from 2006, 2012, went after the heads of the cartels and he basically captured and killed probably about 75% of them. But what we saw was the cartel's fracture, and, you know, people started to, you know, go after the leadership of the cartel and that led to a lot of violence. For example, with the old Guadalajara Cartel, you know, with the Sinaloa Cartel and many others. But this is the time that Mexico can capitalize and go after the infrastructure. I'm talking about the people that launder money, the armed wings of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, the mid-level and the high-level drug trafficking people within that organization. They have to really move quickly. They have to move efficiently, and they have to base their actions on intelligence.
FADEL: When you say quickly and efficiently, are you only talking about force, violence or are there other alternatives as well?
VIGIL: Well, not necessarily force, but, you know, arresting these individuals. But, you know, obviously, that's going to come with force because they are not going to go willingly. And unfortunately, the cartels are heavily armed thanks to the weapons that are coming in from the United States. We estimate that there's probably about 300,000 weapons that go into Mexico annually from the United States. Mexico only has one gun store in the entire country, which is located on a military base near Mexico City, and they only sell low-caliber weapons, approximately 6,500 every year. So the vast majority of the weapons come from Texas, Arizona and California, and many of them that go into Mexico and end up in the hands of the cartels.
FADEL: Now, really quickly, the Mexican president had been clear she doesn't want the U.S. intervening in Mexico. Do you think this show of force was about making sure the U.S. doesn't come in on its own?
VIGIL: Well, that's true. But the Trump administration really doesn't understand Mexico because they have not learned their lesson from Afghanistan. Mexico is three times larger than Afghanistan. Then you have the Sierra Madres, which are equivalent to the Bora Bora mountains, you know, the rugged terrain in Afghanistan that they would have to navigate.
Currently, the Mexican population would not cooperate because they would look at this as an invasion, limiting the capability of the armed forces of the United States to collect intelligence. Then you would have the cartels that would also engage, you know, U.S. military troops if they went into Mexico. So in that sense, it would be a disaster. And then it would create tremendous instability, not only in Mexico but throughout Latin America.
FADEL: Mike Vigil is a former chief of international operations for the DEA. Thank you for your time.
VIGIL: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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