STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Larry Sabato is watching today's primaries, as he has watched many over the years. He directs the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Mr. Sabato, welcome back.
LARRY SABATO: Thank you, Steve.
INSKEEP: What thoughts did you have as you listened to some of the voters Sam was talking with there?
SABATO: I think it well represented what's really at stake across the country, but particularly in the Michigan Senate race, which is a divide that we've seen many times over the years between establishment Democrats, who focus on winning in November, and antiestablishment Democrats, who are angry at fill in the blank - certainly gas prices, food prices and Donald Trump himself - people who focus on what they're opposed to and want to nominate someone they believe in.
INSKEEP: I am curious if you think that we should still be thinking about the two categories in the same way there, the electable person versus the angry person. Is it possible, which I think some on the left might feel, that the angry person is the electable person?
SABATO: Well, there is a lot of that sentiment. And, you know, Steve, if this turns into any kind of a blue wave, then you will have lots of people from the antiestablishment wing of the party, from the progressive wing, winning in November, even though they may have been written off in the summer. We've seen that many times in both parties. So anger sometimes can propel a larger turnout, which in a midterm election can produce results.
INSKEEP: I'm also, yeah, thinking about what I guess experts like you would call the fundamentals. I mean, people have a certain view of the economy right now. People know who the president is. People definitely have opinions about the president. Does it really matter who the Democratic nominee is in Michigan?
SABATO: It matters to a certain degree. I think it does affect the margins of the electorate. And that can matter in a close race. But see, that's the key. Will these races be close by November? Or will, as you say, the fundamentals have driven the election strongly in one direction or the other? If we've got fundamentals pushing things toward the edge, pushing things toward a wave, then I think people's emotions take control and some of the principles that we associate with midterm elections may not apply this year.
INSKEEP: I get the impression that people on the political left, democratic socialists and others, are thinking about primaries a little bit the way that President Trump has been thinking about primaries. If he wins the primary, it's a divided country, and he's got a good chance of winning the general, period.
SABATO: Yes, that's the way we are today. That's the way Americans are. We used to be very pragmatic in our voting. There were decades when we voted pragmatically in both parties. I'm not going to say those days are gone, but they're ebbing.
INSKEEP: Does the mainstream have any game left on the Democratic side?
SABATO: The mainstream has more money. The mainstream often has the elected officials. Notice, most of the elected officials, the senior people in the Democratic Party in Michigan and elsewhere, have supported Haley Stevens and not Abdul El-Sayed. But is that enough anymore? Is it enough in a year when anger and disaffection is driving politics in America? Well, we'll find out.
INSKEEP: Could you give me an assessment of the Republican candidate who does not face a real primary challenge, as I understand it. Mike Rogers, former member of Congress, now seeking a Senate seat. How does he match up with the moment for Michigan?
SABATO: Well, he's followed the old rule that if your opponent is committing suicide, or you think the opponent is committing suicide, then you don't interfere. He's been very quiet. He nearly won the other Senate seat in 2024, just a few thousand votes away from victory then. However, it's a different year. Donald Trump carried Michigan reasonably handily in 2024. And that helped Mike Rogers.
Well, this year in Michigan, as well as in all but a handful of American states, Donald Trump is well below 50% popularity. So again, very different situation. If he runs the same campaign he ran in 2024, he'll lose. We'll see how he adjusts to the new realities as we go forth into the fall.
INSKEEP: Let me zoom out from the map of Michigan to the map of the United States. I'm sure you're thinking and reassessing with each new round of primaries how the fall looks like, who is favored. We have thought Democrats are favored to win the House and that Republicans are favored to keep the Senate, but Democrats have a narrow path. How are you feeling about the odds for the fall right now?
SABATO: I think they've been moving in a Democratic direction, certainly in the House. You wouldn't know it by reading the headlines or looking at the daily news ticker. But the basic underlying principle to midterm elections is people have a chance to react to the incumbent administration and send their tentative verdict. And so that's what they're doing for the House. For the Senate, opinions, well-informed opinions differ greatly here. But I think, again, Democrats are on the field to actually win the Senate. Whether they'll do it depends on what happens between now and November.
INSKEEP: You still see about, I don't know, five, six states of which Democrats have to prevail in almost all of them to get a majority?
SABATO: Yes. They don't have to prevail in all of them. But they're going to have to do well in states Donald Trump carried by more than 10 points, at least in a couple of cases. And that isn't easy.
INSKEEP: Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, thanks.
SABATO: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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