LEILA FADEL, HOST:
We shall outlast them. Those were the words of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev for the West during a speech he gave in Moscow in 1956. Communism, he vowed, would outlast capitalism. Seventy years on, are Khrushchev's words still a guiding light for Russia's policies, even after the fall of the Soviet Union? Russia expert Hanna Notte argues yes in her new book, "We Shall Outlast Them." It details the many ways Russia has set out to expand its global influence, including framing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a war against the West and its decadence. That kind of propaganda, Notte writes, is key to Russia's expanding influence. She sets out to answer the question, why does Russia's messaging resonate?
HANNA NOTTE: The sources of pro-Russian affinity have formed as layers of storytelling about the past, about past rights and past wrongs. Russia appeals to some because the Soviet Union was a friend, to others, because the West is hypocritical, because woke ideas unsettle them or because democracy no longer delivers - because the status quo, however defined, is bad.
FADEL: Why has Russia been so successful in the story it tells about itself?
NOTTE: Russia has framed the war that it is waging as an anti-neocolonial war. So according to that story, the West is using Ukraine as a proxy in order to dismantle Russia, and Russia is standing up against the imperial West. And that story resonates in other parts of the world, for example, in Africa, because countries there have their own experiences with Western oppression. And one of the reasons why Russia is quite successful in doing so is that it has really gone on the offensive in disseminating this kind of propaganda. Russian media has really spread its tentacles in Africa, in Latin America, in the Middle East.
FADEL: But why does that work when you look at what it's doing in Ukraine, a sovereign state, but also the more quiet interventions across eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East?
NOTTE: What Russia is doing in Ukraine is not seen through the prism of colonialism and occupation. And, you know, I have this feeling that the reason for that is that colonialism is not something that white people are doing to other white people in Europe. And there's also a perception of the war in Ukraine as a war that is ultimately one that the West is at fault for.
FADEL: In another part of your book, you write about President Donald Trump. And you call him disruptor in chief. You write that him as an anti-interventionist, an anti-liberal, an anti-globalist-leader has given Russia some space in its campaign to outlast the West. But also, Trump is an unpredictable leader. So is it something that Russia can really depend on long-term?
NOTTE: I think the anti-interventionism and anti-globalism in Donald Trump's campaign promises promised to give Russia some space in its campaign to outlast the West. But the way that U.S. foreign policy has played out in action over the last 18 months has actually meant that many of Russia's hopes did not materialize. They welcomed the promise of a normalization in the U.S.-Russia relationship. But then if we look at the practice of U.S. foreign policy, of course, we see that Donald Trump has ordered the use of military force against many countries, including Russian partners, Venezuela and Iran. And even though Donald Trump has rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin, there has been no meaningful normalization in the Russia-U.S. relationship or real gains from a Russian point of view.
FADEL: What about when it comes to that propaganda war? Are there things that the West, the United States is doing that feeds this story that Russia tells about the role of the West and the ills of the world?
NOTTE: Well, I do think that the handling of the war in Gaza and this unequivocal support that countries in Europe and the United States lent to Israel really made it much easier for Russia to tell a story of Western hypocrisy, of Western double standard of caring about human rights in some parts of the world and not in others. And Russia really tapped into those grievances quite opportunistically.
FADEL: I mean, I do remember very specific interviews with Palestinians where they would point that out. How can you see occupation and invasion and oppression in Ukraine and not see it with us? A refrain I heard often.
NOTTE: Right.
FADEL: Has Putin's, though, laser focus on Ukraine disrupted its larger strategy of domination that we saw through both military backing and propaganda over the years? And I'm thinking of the sort of crumbling of its influence in Syria when Bashar al-Assad fell, the disruption of that in places like Armenia and beyond.
NOTTE: In some ways, yes. But it's a mixed picture. If we compare Russia's position in the world today to what it was in January 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia's global influence has declined. In 2022, Russia had it pretty good. It had strained but still functional relations with Europe and the United States. It had a solid military presence in Syria, in the South Caucasus. It had good relations with China.
Now relations with Europe have totally unraveled. Russia's position in the Middle East has eroded. And the relationship between Russia and China has become a lot more asymmetrical because Russia has become so heavily dependent on China because of Western sanctions. And unless this war ends and something changes dramatically, this trajectory of deepening dependence on China will only continue.
FADEL: Do you see a future where this does change?
NOTTE: At the moment, I don't think that President Putin is ready to walk away from this war. Until there is domestic political change inside Russia - Russia looks at itself as a global power - it retains the ambition to project power into other parts of the world.
FADEL: Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Her book, "We Shall Outlast Them," is out today. Hanna, thank you.
NOTTE: Thank you so much.
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