Independent Kansas voters could be what sends a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, but also what keeps a Democrat out of the governor’s office.
A poll by Emerson College has Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hamilton prevailing over incumbent Republican Roger Marshall, but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cindy Holscher losing to Republican candidate Ty Masterson.
The two Democratic, white, Johnson County-based candidates running on their moderate approaches might seem similar, but have split independents. Why would someone vote for Hamilton in the Senate race but not Holscher in the race for governor?
According to experts and voters, two factors are influencing the outcome — funding and messaging.
Kansas has far more registered Republicans than Democrats or unaffiliated voters, but has elected two Democrats to the governor's office since 2000.
The state tends to flip-flop between which party holds the office, and has alternated between Democratic and Republican governors for more than 60 years. Since current Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited and leaving office, history would suggest that a Republican would hold the seat next.
History would not, however, predict Kansas sending a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. The last time Kansans sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1932. It’s the longest streak of any state for not sending a Democrat to the Senate.
Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University, said a Democrat can win a statewide vote if voters know who they are.
Beatty said Hamilton is able to go toe-to-toe with Marshall’s campaign in terms of spending and recognition — but Holscher hasn’t been able to against Masterson.
“If people aren’t hearing and seeing from a different candidate, the default is the Republican,” Beatty said.
Money, money, money
Beatty said Holscher is being outspent on television ads by the millions, specifically by the Republican Governor’s Association.
“This may turn out to be the largest monetary discrepancy in modern Kansas history,” Beatty said.
Beatty, who analyzes political ads and maintains an archive of them, said while watching one show streaming on HBO, he saw 16 anti-Holscher ads.
Holscher told Kansas News Service she wasn’t surprised by the attack ads — especially since the Republican Governors Association has been targeting the seat. Holscher said she’s doing polling and message testing to make sure her messaging is effective, but plans to roll out more ads.
In 2022, Kelly outspent her Republican opponent. Beatty said Kelly was an effective fundraiser — but that many of the national groups that funneled money into Kelly’s advertisements haven’t returned for Holscher.
Kelly endorsed Holscher’s primary opponent, state Sen. Ethan Corson. Holscher pitched herself as the anti-establishment candidate, and tied Kelly and her endorsement of Corson to the Kansas political establishment. Holscher ended up winning in a bitter primary, marked by accusations of blackmail from Kelly’s administration, which Holscher denies.
“So that’s going to have an effect on fundraising,” Beatty said. “Possibly the people that contributed to Kelly’s campaign may not be as open to it.”
Hamilton, on the other hand, set a record-breaking number of donations after announcing his bid. In the first two months of his campaign, Hamilton brought in more than $3.5 million — more than any Kansas Senatorial candidate has raised in the first reporting period. Hamilton is the founding pastor of the country’s largest United Methodist Church, with a yearly budget in 2023 of $30 million.
Marshall’s previous Democratic opponent for Senate, Barbara Bollier, also set fundraising records. The 2020 polls had the Marshall/Bollier match up as a close race. Bollier ultimately lost by 11 percentage points in 2020.
“It’s not enough to raise a lot of money — but it has to be done in order to have a chance,” Beatty said.
Messaging
There are, by far, more Republicans in Kansas — around 900,000 registered in 2025. But there are around 58,000 more unaffiliated voters than Democrats.
Alexandra Middlewood, a political science professor at Wichita State University, said these elections boil down to who can attract more unaffiliated voters.
“To do that you really need to focus on these moderate, those center-of-the-road issues,” Middlewood said. “I just think that Hamilton is doing a better job of doing that.”
Middlewood pointed to Kelly’s emblematic ad of her literally walking down the middle of a road as the same approach that Hamilton has taken — except his is in the middle of a field.
“Because he has ads out, because he’s able to speak to voters directly in that way,” Middlewood said. “He gets to determine the messaging of his campaign.”
Middlewood said that money from pro-Masterson groups is leaving Holscher on the defensive when it comes to ad spending.
“We see fewer ads in general from the Holscher campaign, which means that (the pro-Masterson political action committees) are setting the messaging for Holscher’s campaign,” Middlewood said.
That messaging, so far, has been that Holscher is too “woke.” Holscher denies this characterization of her — and said that more ads supporting her will come out soon.
Middlewood said that the policies that put Holscher out of step with Kelly are her policies on legalizing marijuana and temporarily stopping new data centers from being built in the state.
Holscher said these policies make her “mainstream, where the voters are.” Surveys have shown a majority of Kansans support legalizing marijuana.
Eric Marmon, who lives in Spring Hill, was an independent until the August primary — when he switched his affiliation to Democratic so that he could vote for Hamilton.
He said more independents would stand behind Holscher if they knew about her stance on marijuana.
“I’ve heard nothing about her positions on almost anything,” Marmon said. “I need to do a better job of going out and researching, but that’s the thing — most people aren’t going out and researching these candidates. They’re being told what to think from these commercials.”
Beatty said Holscher is still within striking distance to win the governorship — especially if she pulls in more money. Hamilton’s predicted win is within the poll’s margin of error.
Grace Hills reports on politics for the Kansas News Service.
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