While early voting totals are surging in the St. Louis area ahead of Tuesday's election, it's not clear what the numbers mean for midterm turnout overall.
The 2026 midterms mark at least the fifth election in which Missouri voters could cast ballots in person in the two weeks leading up to Election Day without an excuse. In most places, the number of people taking advantage of that option is second only to the 2024 presidential election. In St. Louis County, for example, about 130,000 people had voted early as of Friday afternoon, compared to 56,000 in the 2022 midterms.
But it's nearly impossible to make an apples-to-apples comparison, said Eric Fey, the county's Democratic elections director. 2022 was the first year that early voting was available as an option, which meant awareness was not as high.
"We only had seven locations," he added. "We have 21 locations this election for people."
The story is similar in Jefferson County. The county clerk there, Jeannie Goff, said she expected more than 10,000 people to vote early this year, compared to just 4,100 in 2022. But her predecessor, she said, did not open satellite locations. That meant everyone who wanted to vote early had to drive to Hillsboro.
It's also not clear whether the increased turnout means more people are voting in general, or just shifting when they vote. In St. Louis County in 2024, early voters accounted for more than half of the ballots cast. But that trend did not continue this year, says Republican Elections Director Rick Stream.
"In August of this year we had a significant number of people vote early, but then we had a really massive turnout on election day. So we really don't know exactly what's going to happen," he said.
Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins is predicting turnout of 55% statewide. In St. Charles County, Elections Director Kurt Bahr expects to see turnout as high as 60%. That is rare for a year when there is no U.S. Senate or presidential race on the ballot.
"Just looking at the signs, some of the advertisements, as well as the people outside of our polling centers and the things they're advocating for, it does appear that the amendments are what's driving this election a lot more so than the candidates," he said.
Voters will decide on issues including abortion rights, the state's congressional map and the ability of the legislature to overturn citizen-approved initiatives.
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