As Missouri lawmakers gathered in the state Capitol on Thursday to select new leaders, Democratic legislators were feeling something that they hadn't experienced in years: optimism about the future.
Democratic leaders say that unless Republicans course correct, their grip on power in the legislature and statewide offices could be more perilous than they thought it would be before Tuesday.
"I think that that sends a really strong message that the voters are demanding to be heard," said House Minority Leader Ashley Aune, D-Kansas City.
Democrats won two seats in the Missouri Senate and 16 seats in the House, their best electoral performance in a generation. They won House seats in places that were unthinkable just a couple of years ago, like Cass and Cole counties. And they flipped Senate seats in Jackson and Greene counties that had been in GOP hands for generations.
Sen.-elect Betsy Fogle, D-Springfield, said voters she talked to wanted to see more balance after years of GOP dominance in state government. And while Democrats benefited from a national backlash against President Donald Trump, Fogle added that she benefited from a tenacious campaign that was well-funded and well-organized.
"We knocked over 120,000 doors, connecting with voters across Senate District 30, and that is the most important thing in any campaign," Fogle said. "I won my first election by a very narrow margin, 76 votes, after knocking tens of thousands of doors. And I'm very excited that I was able to replicate that field program in the Senate race."
Aune said voters were especially angry over Republicans asking them to pass ballot initiatives that restricted abortion and potentially raised sales and use taxes to get rid of the income tax. They were also upset over a mid-decade redistricting push that GOP leaders did at the behest of Trump.
"All of these things were adding up and adding up, and it almost felt like a pressure cooker when we were knocking on doors," Aune said. "We had so many Republicans and Independents telling us and our candidates, 'I just can't vote for Republicans this year. I can't do it.'"
Tangible benefits
Republicans still control the House and Senate by a solid margin. But they may need Democrats to pass major policy initiatives, such as the state budget.
And because there are more Democrats who can filibuster legislation, newly elected Senate Minority Leader Stephen Webber, D-Columbia, said the GOP majority won't necessarily have an easy time ramming legislation through — especially if Republicans don't have 18 of 22 GOP votes to cut off debate.
"We're not a super minority anymore," Webber said. "We have more than a third of the seats, but we're still a minority, and so I think we know we have to stick together to work on the things that we care about, and I think the caucus is going to do that."
As they look toward the General Assembly's session in January, Republicans on Thursday picked Alex Riley of Springfield to be speaker of the House and Jason Bean of Pemiscot County to be Senate president pro tem.
Bean said he takes his Democratic colleagues seriously, especially since they are more numerous.
"Tuesday night was quite an interesting night," Bean said. "We're going to listen to what the people said and continue to work to move Missouri forward."
Sen. Nick Schroer, R-St. Charles County, who was picked to be majority leader, noted that Democrats have rarely been the reason GOP majorities in the legislature haven't passed their agenda items.
"Have you paid attention to the Missouri Senate over the past couple years? I mean, the Republicans are fighting Republicans," Schroer said. "So I don't necessarily think that it's going to be harder to pass things. I think if we have a caucus that is intact, that's communicating like a well-oiled machine, and has the pulse on what the voters back at home in our districts want, I think we can do anything. But again, injecting professionalism, statesmanship, and communicating with both sides of the aisle, I think that's going to be key."
Statewide ambitions
Before Tuesday, Democrats were not serious threats to win statewide elections because they hadn't bound together a big enough rural, urban and suburban coalition. But Tuesday saw the party's prospects improve in rural counties and historically GOP areas like St. Charles and Jefferson counties.
Webber and Aune agreed that Democrats could be competitive in 2028 if they get the right candidates who are well-supported financially and if the environment is once again grim for Republicans.
"It really has been a 10-year process, and so we're starting to see the fruits of that labor and that organization," Webber said. "Combined with the national dumpster fire, which local Republicans poured gas on, that's what gave us the results we got Tuesday night."
Schroer said Republicans shouldn't be complacent after Tuesday. Democrats gained three House seats in St. Charles County and nearly knocked off GOP incumbents in western parts of the county that had been GOP strongholds.
"Voters aren't going to turn out unless you're producing for them and listening to them," Schroer said. "That's what this position's all about: Working for them. Not working for the lobbyists, not working for the bureaucrats, but actually working for the people back at home. And ultimately, yeah, we should be worried. Republicans need to organize better. Republicans need to message better."
Aune, though, said she doesn't know if Republicans have truly gotten the message voters were sending them on Tuesday.
She pointed out that Schroer and incoming House Majority Leader Darin Chappell, R-Greene County, are longtime members of the Missouri Freedom Caucus — which has chided GOP leadership for not taking on conservative proposals.
"They're doubling down, and I believe they do so at their own electoral peril," Aune said.
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