This week, U.S. intelligence agencies produced a new assessment of the violence in Iraq and the chances for political reconciliation there. It's the second National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq this year.
The last one, delivered in February just as the surge was getting under way, concluded that the security situation in Iraq was dire and getting worse. The latest report says that while sectarian violence remains high, Iraq's overall security could "continue to improve modestly."
But on the political front, the news is worse. The report judges that Iraq's government will become more precarious in the coming months.
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