SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Since the start of the war with Iran, President Trump has used a dizzying array of tactics and framing to try and force Tehran to concede to U.S. demands, even dismissing today's exchanges of fire during a truce as, quote, "a love tap." Iran has not capitulated, as the U.S. hoped it would, and the two sides seem as far apart as ever. NPR's international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam has this report.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: To get a good sense of President Trump's tactical acrobatics, you need only focus in on a 48-hour time span this past week in which he announced an operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, then turned around the next day and suspended it. He said the war wasn't a war, it was a skirmish, and said there was great progress in peace talks, then threatened to start bombing again if Iran doesn't produce the right deal.
RICHARD FONTAINE: There you see, you know, a whole mix of cajoling and diplomacy and rhetoric and threats kind of all combined.
NORTHAM: Richard Fontaine is CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a foreign policy think tank. He says Trump is clearly frustrated that the crisis with Iran has lasted so long.
FONTAINE: So far, there has been no combination of carrots and sticks that has brought Iran to the terms that the Americans want. And if the idea is that, at some point soon, Iran will just break and kind of give the American side everything it wants, I think that is not going to happen.
NORTHAM: Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the goalposts have shifted over the weeks, with Trump and members of his administration giving different reasons for the war.
ELIZABETH DENT: I think the reason why this all feels like whiplash is because there were never any clear strategic goals or military goals that were laid out before the war started. It sounded like we were pushing for a regime change, and then military came out and said that they had these four specific goals. And so, you know, I just think the messaging on this has been really bungled.
NORTHAM: Dent says there was some hubris at play. The U.S. felt Iran was an easy target militarily. She says Trump probably underestimated the Iranians.
DENT: I think he was emboldened by a series of military successes over the last year and a half. Venezuela was one of them. And I think that that kind of led him to believe that the Iranians would go very quickly. And obviously, like, that's not the case.
NORTHAM: Dent says the U.S. is losing credibility by Trump's inconsistent statements. Lyle Goldstein is with the D.C. think tank Defense Priorities. He says some of Trump's comments, such as his threat to, quote, "annihilate an entire civilization," actually benefited the Iranian regime.
LYLE GOLDSTEIN: What's at stake for Iran is the very existence of the state itself, the continuation of the regime. I think talking about destroying civilizations has certainly helped unify Iranians around - you know, rally around the flag.
NORTHAM: White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt defends Trump's strategy, saying he's playing the long game against an Iranian regime that's seen its leadership decimated.
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KAROLINE LEAVITT: It's Iran who needs to get their acts together. The United States and President Trump have been very clear in our demands and our red lines.
NORTHAM: But Goldstein says that Trump's unpredictable and abrasive style doesn't help in delicate negotiations.
GOLDSTEIN: The idea that you could enter into such a complex negotiation and hope that it's finished in 24 hours is just bizarre.
NORTHAM: Goldstein says Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz does give it key leverage.
GOLDSTEIN: So it's hard to see how the current administration escapes this - what is clearly a kind of vast humiliation.
NORTHAM: And he warns that the political clock is ticking with midterm elections just six months away, Jackie Northam, NPR News.
DETROW: NPR reached out to the White House for comment but has not yet heard back.
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